Arkansas Derby Predictions
Free predictions for the 2020 running of the Arkansas Derby first race featuring Charlatan and Basin from Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. This week on HorseCenter, Brian and Matt offer full analysis of the final two Kentucky Derby preps, the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes, as well as takin. ARKANSAS DERBY PICKS. ARKANSAS DERBY DAY LATE PICK 4 TICKET. I chose to focus on the Arkansas Derby Late Pick 4 Saturday (Races 11 – 14), which is headlined by three stakes races – the split divisions of the G1 Arkansas Derby and the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. The Pick 4 is one of horse racing’s most popular bets and challenges. Odds and predictions for Arkansas Derby on Saturday, May 2, 2020. Charlatan is favored in 1st Division and Nadal favored in 2nd Division. 2020 Arkansas Derby Predictions with Morning Line Betting Odds by Raphael Esparza - 4/30/2020 This Saturday, at an empty Oaklawn Park, is the 84th running of the Arkansas Derby, one of the.
Races: Arkansas Derby-G1, Races 11 and 13
Date: Oaklawn Park, Saturday, May 2, 2020
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
Surface: Dirt, Purse: $1 Million
2020 Arkansas Derby Race 11 Picks
- Charlatan
- Gouverneur Morris
- Shooters Shoot
- Winning Impression
- Anneau d’Or
2020 Arkansas Derby Race 13 Picks
- Farmington Road
- Nadal
- King Guillermo
- Wells Bayou
- Fast Enough
2020 Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown Picks
- Secretariat
- Seattle Slew
- Citation
- American Pharoah
The Kentucky Derby was supposed to be run, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was postponed until September 5. Instead, we’ve got the Arkansas Derby-G1 and two Bob Baffert-trained favorites that should prove tough to beat. And we’ve also got the Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, which will pit all 13 American Triple Crown winners against each other in a virtual race on NBC from 3-6 pm EST.
The Triple Crown Showdown is attracting interest from around the world, as it should! Can anyone really beat Secretariat at his best? Not likely. But that’s why they run horse races! You can’t bet on the Showdown, but you can pick a winner and make a donation to COVID-19 relief efforts here.
You can actually bet the Arkansas Derby, and if you’re going to win, you’ll have to beat the Baffert horses, both of which have shown more talent than any of their rivals in each division.
Charlatan makes his stakes debut in the first division of the Arkansas Derby in Race 11 and Rebel Stakes-G2 winner Nadal heads the second division in Race 13. Charlatan has been extremely impressive winning his only two starts on the front end at Santa Anita, while Nadal has won all three of his starts, including the San Vicente-G2 two starts ago and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his last start.
Both Charlatan and Nadal like to be on the lead, but Nadal is proven under pressure and should also be better odds than his stablemate. On the other hoof, Nadal faces a much tougher field in the second division than his stablemate does in the first.
Charlatan has been listed at even-money in the first division, and he breaks from post one, which means he’ll likely be sent to the lead. Even if they don’t send him, he looks like he’ll be on the lead, as there is only one other speed horse in the field, Shooters Shoot, and he may be totally outclassed by Charlatan, who has looked like a monster in his only two starts.
If something goes haywire on the front end, we’ll take Gouverneur Morris to rally for the win off his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby-G1. We’ll throw Shooters Shoot, longshot Winning Impression and blinkers-off Anneau d’Or into our superfectas.
In the second division Nadal may not get the lead if Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Wells Bayou sends from post 11. He was sent to the lead in the Louisiana Derby and never looked back, so likely the same tactics here. That means Nadal will have to press and show what he’s made of in the stretch.
If the two-speed horses hook up, 49-1 Tampa Bay Derby winner King Guillermo could be worth a shot. He improved dramatically in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his first start since finishing third in the Pulpit Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream on November 30. He owns the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 99, and if he doesn’t bounce…
Other contenders for the superfecta include the undependable but nice odds in-an-outer Silver Prospector, San Vicente third-place finisher Fast Enough and longshot Farmington Road. The latter looks enticing as a rallier with Javier Castellano aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher, and would likely need a heated duel up front to produce his best, but we’re going to take a shot with him at long odds.
In the Triple Crown Showdown, we’ll take Secretariat on top as the most talented horses in the field. He’s really only beatable if he has an off day. On his best day, he’s much too good for these. We’ll take Seattle Slew next, as he’s a super gutsy speed horse who put away Affirmed twice in his career. Citation looks next best as an iron horse, who was also the first to earn $1 million on the track. And finally, we’ll take American Pharoah in fourth, not really knowing how good he could be on his best day.
Interestingly, our top three picks in the Triple Crown Showdown won their Triple Crowns in the era before Lasix and medication became a crutch for so many horsemen. The fact that they won the big three classics while racing drug-free makes them real horses with true speed, class, guts, and talent.
Our kind of horses.
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Kentucky will Cover if:
The Wildcats can exert superiority on the glass. Kentucky is an excellent rebounding team when it needs to be, and Kansas’ lack of a true inside presence makes the Jayhawks vulnerable to a bevy of second chances at the offensive end. If Kentucky can work the ball inside and repeatedly pound the Azubuike-less Jayhawks, Kansas will have a hard time keeping up with the Wildcats and their potent offense.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread:
These teams seem to be heading in different directions at this point in the year. At the start of the season, Kansas would have been an easy pick over a Kentucky squad that seemed utterly lost. However, the Wildcats have since found themselves and developed into the kind of team that people expect from John Calipari. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have headed in the opposite direction as their injuries have made life much more difficult than it has been for Bill Self’s crew in some time.
Throw in that Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena this year and Kansas hasn’t been anything special away from Lawrence, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason to gamble on the Jayhawks going into Lexington and coming out with a result. Kentucky is the better team at this point and should come away victoriously.
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By Richard Rosenblatt
The fields were set, post-positions drawn, and rider assignments confirmed on April 26, and a day later the all-important morning-line odds were posted for each of the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1).
As expected, the unbeaten duo of Charlatan and Nadal from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s barn, were made the early favorites in their respective divisions for Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile races.
Charlatan, 2-for-2, was the even-money choice in the first division of 11 horses, drawing the No. 1 post with Martin Garcia getting the call. Nadal, 3-for-3, is the slight 5-2 favorite over King Guillermo (3-1) in the second division of 11 horses, leaving from the No. 5 post with Joel Rosario aboard.
Nadal – Photo Courtesy of Oaklawn Park/ Coady Photography
The second division looks to be the much tougher field, with no less than five winners of Kentucky Derby prep races – Storm the Court (6-1), King Guillermo, Nadal, Silver Prospector (10-1), and Wells Bayou (7-2).
Faced with an overflow field of 3-year-olds for its showcase race, Oaklawn Park officials on Sunday took in all-comers by splitting the race into two divisions.
Predictions For The Arkansas Derby 2020
The maximum field for the Arkansas Derby is 14, and officials said if 22 or more were entered, the field would be split. The race was originally scheduled for April 11, but was moved to the first Saturday in May after the Kentucky Derby (G1) – traditionally run that day – was rescheduled to Sept. 5 in response to the coronavirus pandemic).
The Arkansas Derby, which will be contested without spectators, takes on a different significance since it won’t be the final major Derby prep race. It’s simply the last “official” Derby-points qualifier, with Churchill Downs saying it plans to designate additional races as qualifiers at an appropriate time.
The increased interest in the race is due to several other prep races being postponed or canceled due to COVID-19 restrictions – the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Wood Memorial (G2), and Blue Grass Stakes (G2). The most recent prep offering Derby points was the Florida Derby (G1), won by Tiz the Law (the points leader with 122) on March 28.
Purse, points
Each division will have a $500,000 purse (the original purse was $1 million), with Derby qualifying-points of 100-40-20-10 awarded to the first four finishers in each, as per Churchill Downs approval.
Arkansas Derby 2020 Results
The biggest beneficiary of split divisions is Charlatan, who would not have qualified for a 14-horse field based on earnings.
Each division has several 3-year-olds already qualified for the Kentucky Derby, and trainers with two or more horses in the field have chances in each division. The first draw wound up with two horses with the same ownership group in the same division, forcing officials to redraw the race.
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has two horses entered in each division – Jungle Runner and Basin in the first division, Code Runner and Silver Prospector in the second division.
The fields
After a delay of several hours, the fields are now determined, listed by post position, horse, trainer, jockey):
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlatan | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 1-1 |
| 2 | My Friends Beer | Jeremiah O’Dwyer | Declan Cannon | 20-1 |
| 3 | Mo Mosa | Mike Maker | Kendrick Carmouche | 30-1 |
| 4 | Gouverneur Morris | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 9-2 |
| 5 | Jungle Runner | Steve Asmussen | Tyler Baze | 30-1 |
| 6 | Shooters Shoot | Peter Eurton | Joe Talamo | 8-1 |
| 7 | Wrecking Crew | Peter Miller | Flavien Prat | 20-1 |
| 8 | Anneau d’Or | Blaine Wright | Juan Hernandez | 6-1 |
| 9 | Winning Impression | Dallas Stewart | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 |
| 10 | Crypto Cash | Kenny McPeek | Corey Lanerie | 20-1 |
| 11 | Basin | Steve Asmussen | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 8-1 |
Second Division:
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finnick the Fierce | Rey Hernandez | Martin Garcia | 15-1 |
| 2 | Saratogian | Rodolphe Brisset | Joe Talamo | 50-1 |
| 3 | Storm the Court | Peter Eurton | Flavien Prat | 6-1 |
| 4 | King Guillermo | Juan Carlos Avila | Samuel Camacho, Jr. | 3-1 |
| 5 | Nadal | Bob Baffert | Joel Rosario | 5-2 |
| 6 | Code Runner | Steve Asmussen | Stewart Elliott | 50-1 |
| 7 | Silver Prospector | Steve Asmussen | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 10-1 |
| 8 | Fast Enough | Rafael Becerra | Tyler Baze | 12-1 |
| 9 | Taishan | Richard Baltas | David Cohen | 15-1 |
| 10 | Farmington Road | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 12-1 |
| 11 | Wells Bayou | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 7-2 |
Split divisions not a first
Earlier in the Derby prep season, the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds had split divisions, with Mr. Monomoy and Modernist winning their divisions. In 2019, the Rebel was run in two divisions after Santa Anita was having a rash of horse deaths and the track was closed for a period of time. The last time the Arkansas Derby was split into two divisions was 1960.
For extra info, check out this piece on Arkansas Derby Betting…