Oscars Betting Tips
The 2021 Academy Awards is set to be taken place on April 25, 2021 for the 2020 movie period. At the moment, there is one market released for the night and that is the best picture award, where Nomadland currently heads the betting. The 92nd Academy Awards are Sunday, and you can get in on the action — depending on where you live, of course. The Oscars recognize the best of the best in film from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Many of the top sportsbooks in New Jersey as well as in Indiana are now offering 2020 Oscars odds, including DraftKings and 888sport.
Out of 16 sessions, I lost my money 4 times.
857 hands. 425 wins, 432 losses. Pushes were not counted.
At a $10 table this would have been a $1600 gain. The math seems to add up (49.6% win ratio). Was I just lucky? Can anyone tell me what is the odds are of losing your $200 if you play this system?
Mohammad Mahdian says:
I don’t know much about craps, but there is a 1965 paper by Tom Ferguson that solves a very similar problem for general MDPs:
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/papers/ruin.pdf
Fools Gold says:
March 18, 2007 at 9:45 am
A Statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliot Kbeiico. Columbia, MD 21046
As to the ‘max odds’ question: the mathematical answer seems to be that you should never make a line bet on which you are unable or unwilling to take full odds. Now ofcourse this can make the experience short and sweet if you lose that first bet or the first few bets. 100x odds are often publicity promotions with most players sticking to five or ten times odds, yet Casino Royale (LV-strip) offers one dollar line bets and 100 times odds. Best strategy: $606 PutBet. After three hits, take it down and leave the flat bets for the dealers.
“Better” depends upon goals and preferences. Few people actually trek to Vegas to put their entire bankroll on that first bet despite what mathematicians say is optimal strategy. More bets means more entertainment time, more free drinks, etc. The answer would also depend upon bet progression strategies that you intended to employ. If all you are ‘comfortable’ with is a table minimum bet with five times odds, then go for that. A line bet followed by two come bets would be adequate to stay in the game with your bankroll and catch any ‘hot streaks’. Hedge systems don’t make sense. Grinders don’t really do well anyway.
what you want to maximize is the overall mean length: that is the number of rolls before exhausting your bankroll or making your pre-determined win-goal.
At 5 dollar bets with two times odds, Hoyle’s Press and Oscar would be the two best systems, though Ponzer, in third place, would be preferable overall.
Best thing would be to play at a slower table where there are lots of grinders who will slow things down even more. That maximizes your time at the table more cheaply than switching to a Patrick Right system.
The reference in comment4 carried out simulations to 800 rolls. I would ofcourse question whether this is really enough.
When a statistics professor had a pair of shaved dice manufactured to precision standards he found that the ‘edge’ could not be detected in fewer than one million rolls, so I wonder if any Monte Carlo simulation would really prove anything.
URL for comment Four:
http://www.conjelco.com/downloads/elliott-paper.pdf
A statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliott.
Elliott paper is also available in:
Finding the Edge: Mathematical and Quantitative Analysis of Gambling (Institute of Gambling & Commercial Gaming) (Hardcover)
by Olaf Vancura (Editor), William Eadington (Editor), Judy Cornelius (Editor)
However, I need a clarification: if your bankroll is reduced to 20 but your next bet should be 30:
(a) do you bet 20, or exceed your bankroll and bet 30;
(b) if you bet 20, and then win, is your next bet 30 (i.e. 10 more than what you actually bet) or 40 (i.e. 10 more than what you 'should have' bet)?
I tested it out myself and found that the system seems to work. The system is just a Oscar's grind with these limits: 1. Start with exactly 20 times the minimum bet. 2. Walk away from the table when you double your money. I tried it out on the simulator and these were my results:
what game did you play?
This is easily simulated BTW. $200 bankroll and $10 unit bets in Craps
I get 55% chance of a session ruin playing with no odds. The odds would make this way more interesting I would think.
(this can also be setup as a Markov chain for ruin or quit at $400 as an example)
Stewart N. Ethier
The Doctrine of Chances
Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling
Has a few sections on this Oscar system for the probability of winning 1 unit with a max table bet of 500 units
(requires a very large bankroll too)
more than the OP
Fun and interesting reading. from page 288
'This leads to
a recursive algorithm that is well suited to numerical computation for large
M. For example, if M = 500, the system has 41,917,000 equations. Nevertheless,a numerical solution is feasible, and when p = 244/495, it has been
found that Q(1, 1) ≈ 0.999740807832.'
he uses some other parameters for his calculation too about when to abort the system
a very high probability of winning one unit one time while risking a massive loss with a low probability of losing
sounds all too familiar
Sally
For even-money bets on double-zero roulette, it's about a 35.2% success rate
For a game with 1% house edge (winning probability = 49.5%), it's about 46.22% success.
the original Oscar played Craps from what I have read.
what game did you play?
This is easily simulated BTW. $200 bankroll and $10 unit bets in Craps
I get 55% chance of a session ruin playing with no odds.
a craps player just flat betting $10 trying to double a $200 bankroll
success = 36.22%
=1/((q/p)^b_x+1)
b(x)units: 20
p=244/495
q=1-p
But we know the Oscar bettor raises the bet after a win one unit or less to hit the one unit win goal before starting the progression all over again
The Oscar example I showed had an average bet of almost $20
That is how he was able to have a higher probability of doubling the $200 bankroll
(betting it all one time would give a 49.3% success rate)
How about the flat bettor now betting $20. That gives a 10 unit bankroll
success = 42.96%
closer to Oscar system
Is the Oscar in my example 'better' than flat betting?
better = ?
Oscars 2020 Betting Tips
how fast is ruin with Oscar compared to flat betting?that is another question some may be interested in. time playing instead of how much can I win.
different bankrolls (and bet sizes) and win goals and time goals mean way different results
your mileage and fun will vary
Oscar
'Named after a hot dog, you poor man, you poor, poor man'
many LOVE hot dogs
Sally
Oscars Betting Tips 2020
I used a strategy card to play a perfect strategy. I have a Vegas trip coming up and I'm just looking for a way to maximize my play time and win some money if I can.
just flat bet to maximize play time (or no bet at times if they will allow this) and have lots of fun. you win by luck and basic strategy. better than a rabbit's foot.I understand that this system is probably flawed in some way, I just don't have the mathematical skills to prove or disprove it. The data I collected had peeked my interest. If I am only risking $200 at a time, my risk of ruin seems quite low.
all systems are 'flawed' playing against a house edge game.the number of times you played was low.
like flipping a coin 10 times and betting on Heads. one session you could get 6 or 7 or even more Heads.
You may now think you are a master coin flipper and can win money flipping coins.
Play more sessions and you will see those sessions that have more Tails than Heads.
until then, have fun playing and if you win, winning is only because
and not because you have some system that if everyone played would close all the casinos or force then to change all the games.some more info from one that runs simulations for blackjack using many different betting systems
7-systems-and-3-ways-to-play-blackjack
I too will be in Las Vegas at the end of this month.
do not win all the money, I want to play and win some too
Sally
There are odds-on favourites for each of the top six Academy Awards categories but, if there is to be a shock result in one of the high-profile races, it may occur in Best Actor where Matthew McConaughey is the clear market leader.
McConaughey was a laughing stock among serious actors until he took a brief break and, upon his return, turned his back on romantic comedies to focus on independent films that had challenging roles. McConaughey has been nominated for his portrayal of Ron Woodroof, a part that required him to shed 38 pounds, in Dallas Buyers Club. McConaughey plays an AIDS patient who smuggled unapproved pharmaceutical drugs into Texas when he found them effective at improving his symptoms, distributing them to fellow sufferers.
Many of the important Academy Awards precursors have gone to McConaughey, including the Screen Actors Guild prize. But is Dallas Buyers Club, a movie that has made the Best Picture cut but does not have a hope in hell of receiving that gong, likely to provide two of the four actor/actress winners?
It is a question worth posing because Jared Leto is a lock to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. Leto has dominated the pre-Academy Awards events with none of his rivals – Barkhad Abdi, Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender and Jonah Hill – landing a serious blow. And, no, Abdi receiving the BAFTA does not really matter. So, if Leto takes out the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor, will voters think twice about McConaughey in his category?
For years it was common for films to win two or more of the four Academy Awards for acting. However, there has been a dearth of such eventualities in recent times. The last movie to supply two Academy Awards acting winners was The Fighter three years ago when Christian Bale and Melissa Leo won Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress respectively. That ended a six-year drought since Million Dollar Baby superstars Morgan Freeman and Hilary Swank took out the Academy Awards for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress respectively. It does not happen as often as it once did.
McConaughey is a worthy Best Actor favourite but there are reasons why some of Hollywood’s Academy Awards experts are tipping that Leonardo DiCaprio could upset at odds of 6.00 with Bet365 and Betfred. Among the DiCaprio disciples is Tom O’Neil, the Academy Awards tragic behind the GoldDerby website.
DiCaprio is due by industry standards having received four Academy Awards nominations. Many critics have described DiCaprio’s performance in The Wolf Of Wall Street as the finest of his career and being the lead actor in a Martin Scorsese-directed picture helps. One does not know how the Academy Awards voters who hold Screen Actors Guild rights view DiCaprio because, bizarrely, The Wolf Of Wall Street star did not make it on to the Screen Actors Guild ballot.
Recent Academy Awards ceremonies have gone according to the script, if one will pardon the pun. And there does appear to be several 86th Academy Awards certainties, particularly Cate Blanchett in Best Actor, Alfonso Cuaron in Best Directing and Leto in Best Supporting Actor.
Not even Blanchett’s association with controversial figure Woody Allen is going to stop her winning her first Academy Award for Best Actress and her second Oscar in any category. Only once in the last 30 years has a helmsman won both the Golden Globes Award and the Directors Guild of America Award for directing and not gone on to taste Academy Awards success so Cuaron has the right form lines. And Leto’s performance of a transgender woman is really terrific.
Surely Academy Awards voters will resist the temptation to hand a second Oscar to Jennifer Lawrence before she turns 24, leaving Lupita Nyong’o to collect the Best Supporting Actress statuette. That would also mean that Best Picture favourite 12 Years A Slave wins one of the acting prizes, which is something that usually happens at the Academy Awards. Nyong’o is available at odds of 1.73 with Stan James to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress.
We did dabble in the early markets, touching on the second tier markets before the bookmakers caught on. If there odds are still available at any sportsbooks then they are still profitable bets.