Soccer Betting Under Over 2.5 Goals

1. The over/under 2.5 goal is one of the most popular betting markets today attracting hundreds and thousands of punters. Its popularity lies in its simplicity and easy-to-understand rules and regulations. Bets are placed either on over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals. In the former case, you win the bet if there are three or more goals.
2. Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 goals betting is not an exact applied science. By this I mean if you go and do the proper research and it seems like a 100% sure bet, there is no saying it will win! What I intend to do is show you how to select the most exact possible winning bets to bet on and give you my advantage of making a consistent profit.
3. People also search: “free under over soccer picks“, “over under predictions soccer“, “under over predictions” or “under over 2.5 tips“. If you are interested in finding “under over statistics” or “under over 2.5 goals strategy” please follow our betting systems page!
4. The odds for over/under 2.50 are much closer together. This is because over 2.5 goals is roughly as likely as under 2.5 goals. It’s important that you understand these differences in odds and why they exist. They’re actually a big part of what makes the over/under total goals such a great wager.

We optimise our soccer predictions and tips for maximum flexibility and convenience, with categories catering to different betting markets such as both teams to score (BTTS), over 1.5, over 2.5 goals, over 3.5 goals, 1st half goals, double chance, fulltime handicap, accumulators, Chance Mix, Combo, highest scoring half, win either half, win.

Soccer bettors are increasingly looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, for which a lack of goals or a late equaliser can deny even the best judgments a winning bet. A straightforward way to try and beat the bookies on the soccer front is with the Over/Under goals markets. This article offers a simple step-by-step guide on how to calculate probabilities for the expected number of goals in a match and convert them into odds, so that you know what to bet on and what to avoid.

Step 1: Find the average number of goals per game

In comparison to most sports, scoring in soccer is a less frequent event and it is certainly not uncommon for a match to feature no goals whatsoever. This means that when it comes to betting, bookmakers study the average number of goals scored per match for the two teams involved in the fixture in question when assessing the odds for the Over/Under markets.

If over 2.5 goals for a Premier League match is available with Pinnacle at 1.925 and another bookmaker is offering the same bet at 1.800, you know that you are better off at Pinnacle. However, how you do assess if it is worthwhile betting your money on this market to begin with?

Suitably, the best place to start is with the same method as the bookmakers - by finding the average number of goals per game for the two teams involved in the match you are interested in betting on.

This is generally an easy figure to research online. To provide some detail, here are the average goals per game for several major soccer leagues and competitions during the last three seasons:

As the above table highlights, major soccer leagues and competitions have predominantly averaged between 2.5 and 3 goals per game in recent years, although any given league or competition should be considered on an individual basis. For instance, last season the Hong Kong First Division averaged a massive 4.12 goals per game, whereas the El Salvador Premiera Division only mustered a mere 1.83.

Step 2: Calculate the probabilities

The random nature of goal scoring enables statistics to follow a poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for Over/Under betting. It is important to establish what that means in practice.

In his book Taking Chances, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occuring by using the above table.

Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and mutiply them together to calculate the probability for each scoreline:

Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet.

In this example, that would be:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

Step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on

Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept.

To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula:

In the above example, a 67.56% possibility corresponds to an equation of 100 / 67.56, which equates to decimal odds of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookmaker offering odds of higher than 1.48.

Naturally, this approach does not guarantee a winning bet. However, it does provide an easy to apply betting strategy with positive expected value that should secure profits over a long span of time when aggregrating your long-term losses and profits.

Do this research ahead of any match you are considering placing an Over/Under goals bet on and you can sit back and enjoy the action, knowing that you have put yourself in the best possible position to win your bet.

Over/Under video explainer

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Introduction

Hi and welcome to Goals Market Professional; a system and training manual that will take you through the goal betting market and hopefully give you the tools to be able to determine how many goals there will be in a match. Something which you can then turn into £££'s on the betting markets!

Goals are the only true constant in a football match. Throughout a season teams will win, lose and draw whereas goals will just keep flooding in. You may have been disappointed when your 1/7 favourite was beaten out 2-1 in a game they were leading from the opening minutes but I was quietly pleased because my Over 2.5 goal bet had just come in again.

This is the best part of betting on the goal market. No longer do you have to pit two teams against each other instead when you bet on the goal market the two teams are working together to provide you with betting profits!

I prefer to bet on the Over in the goals markets, normally the 2.5 goal market. This means that I like to bet that there will be Over 2.5 goals in a certain match. If there are then 3 or more goals I win, if there are 0, 1 or 2 goals I will lose. Conversely if I were to back Under 2.5 goals then 0, 1 or 2 goals would result in profit while 3+ would result in a loss.

There are a number of different goal markets you can bet on and after you have read and absorbed this information you should be able to have a go at all of them. The most popular ones are Over 0.5, Over 1.5 and so on up to usually Over 4.5 but with some bookmakers you can get up to Over 7.5. There are also 1st half goals and individual team goals that you can be betting. We prefer the 2.5 goals market because the odds are usually pretty decent while still having a pretty good strike rate, with 1.5 goals or less the strike rate required is much greater because of the odds and with 3.5 goals the odds are often not enough to cover the strike rate needed. 2.5 goals is the optimum level for odds and strike rate which makes it a perfect market for betting.

There is also another direction you can go in and that is spread betting. With spread betting you are paid your stake multiplied by per goal it is over the spread. E.g. you have backed there will be Over 2.45 goals in Match X, in the end the match finishes 4-2, instead of just winning your stake x the odds, you will win the total goal make-up (6) take away the spread (2.45) multiplied by your stake. So in the first example you would have made £10 if you backed £10 and the odds were 2.00. In the second case you would have made £35.50. Basically what I am trying to say is you can make a nice bit of money through spread betting if you think there are going to be even more than 2.5 goals in a game. With spread betting you are awarded by how correct you are not just if you were correct, this is helpful with goals betting because we are no longer limited to restricting ourselves to 1 particular market (Over 2.5, Over 3.5, Over 4.5 etc) instead we can back the Total Goal Spread and smile as every extra goal means extra money.

**Warning** Spread betting comes with additional risks to traditional odds betting and it is possible to lose more than you stake. You win more the more correct you are but you also lose more the more wrong you are.

I said that I prefer backing Over when dealing with goals. This is mainly due to the fact that I think it is much easier to determine teams who are likely to score than it is to determine teams who are unlikely to score. Especially as there are a huge number of 'freak' goals that occur in football. Goals can come from Penalties, Incorrect Offside Decisions, Goalkeeping Errors, Own Goals and the occasional Beach Ball! All of these things cannot be accounted for beforehand so if you were betting Over these things would all be working for you whereas if you were betting Under you would need to add in an extra risk variable to account for unforeseen goals.

Also when dealing with Over in the goals market you are able to better identify players who are going to score goals, it's quite difficult to isolate players who will not score goals, or stop goals being scored. Obviously the goal keeper and defence has a lot to do with this but judging whether they will be beaten is a much easier task than judging whether they will come through!

This guide therefore is designed to help you in 2 main ways. Firstly we have the beginner's system. This system gives you step by step instructions to follow which, if you follow correctly, will ensure that you profit from the 2.5 goals market. Then we have the Advanced Training section. This section will dissect the goals market, goal scorers, teams, different match types, the odds, individual players and strike partnerships and will provide you with the betting knowledge so that you can be able to look at a particular game and be able to say with conviction.

'There will be at least X amount of goals in this game'.

I have had people tell me after they read this manual that they were seeing win rates of over 80% which when the odds for the 2.5 goal market is typically between 1.6 and 2.4 then you can see just how profitable a good understanding of the goals market can be.

So start off by reading the Beginner's system which outlines a basic system that I have used for years that has given me a pretty decent 60% strike rate with the average odds being around 1.9. Then once you have gotten used to doing that read the advanced system that will teach you as opposed to just telling you what to do. You will learn how to analyse games based on a number of key concepts and ultimately you should be able to read exactly how a game is going to play out to an incredible degree of accuracy!

Over/Under 2.5 Goals System: Beginner's System

by Tony Robinson

How To Bet Under 2.5 Goals

Foreword If there is one thing I know, it's making good money as a punter. I've been in this tax free business for some years now and I've only ever restricted myself to betting on two different sports, namely Horse Racing and Football. The reason I've done this is simple. If you restrict yourself to a small area of an entire genre, in this case being sport, it is far easier to learn the games more in depth. Horse Racing and Football are possibly two of the broadest sports you'll find, but what I have done is taken it a step further in the football sense. I haven't studied a specific team. I haven't studied any specific leagues, but what I have done is do my best to work out how many goals are going to be scored in any particular game depending on which teams are playing!

This system has served me for quite a few years now and I continue to implement it. I have never really shown it to anyone before except the odd family member and friend but none of them ever took the time to test it carefully and reap the potential awards that it could bring to anyone.

Notes about Overs and Unders

Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 goals betting is not an exact applied science. By this I mean if you go and do the proper research and it seems like a 100% sure bet, there is no saying it will win! What I intend to do is show you how to select the most exact possible winning bets to bet on and give you my advantage of making a consistent profit virtually close to all year round using this system that I devised quite some time ago.

One of the greatest things about betting on Under or Over 2.5 goals, is the fact that we almost always get decent odds. The odds are generally between 1.60 and 2.20 and what I intend to do, is help you find far more winning bets than losers.

One thing I will make clear. This is not a long drawn out manual. I am not a writer and I don't intend to fill it up with excess garbage to ‘pad' this book. I will give it to you straight and you can use it! My system teaches you how to pick both under 2.5 and over 2.5 goals in any given game. To be honest I prefer to play on over 2.5 goals because you can always hope for a goal rather than have your bet lose 30 minutes in after 3 are scored!

How to Back 2.5 Goals

In order to use this system you will need a Bet365 account. This is because you will need to be betting on markets that only Bet365 offers and when other firms offer the same market Bet365 almost always offer better odds.

Luckily there is a way that you can grab £100 match bonus just by signing up. However you must use the link below if you want to claim these free bets:

Selecting Over 2.5 Goals

There are many crucial factors that go into selecting under or over 2.5 goals. Take a team like Chelsea as an example. At home, they are generally defensively sound. Over the past 3 or 4 years, they have won most of their home games, and if you look at the score lines, more often than not they end 1-0 or 2-0 (with a growing number of 6-0s). We basically need to match teams that score and concede quite a few goals... or teams with awful defensive records and more obviously, teams who score 3 or 4 a game.

I am going to show you how I make uses of various statistics and results to select these. I use http://www.soccerway.com as the site and I've only come across this recently. It makes life far easier because the results are right at your fingertips. For those who are unaware, OVER 2.5 GOAL betting involves betting on games to have 3 or more goals in total.

The System and the Odds

The first rule of this system is that we are betting on odds from 1.60 to 2.20. You may not bet on anything below 1.60 and you may not exceed 2.20. The system will work and profit with virtually all of the major leagues. The English Premiership and Championship, Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera, German Bundesliga, French Ligue 1, Dutch Eredivisie, Scottish Premiership. It will work on other leagues, but I recommend sticking to the above ones. They are the most widely covered and they are generally more consistent.

I don't play outside of those leagues, but I have tried the system on a few others such as the Japanese J-League, MLS, the Brazilian league and the system still functions properly. After the rule regarding the odds being between 1.60 and 2.20, there is another crucial one that you need to stick to. You may NOT use a specific team more than two times in a row.

Let us say that we are betting on Manchester City to be over 2.5 goals in a game on October 5th... and it ends over 2.5. We then bet on them to be over 2.5 goals for the following game on October 12th... if that too is successful, you may not bet on them for the 3rd in a row. It is just to play against the laws of averages and in my experience I have had success applying this. Eventually, even if it goes against statistics, it WILL end under 2.5 at some stage, even if stats say there should be goals.

Selection Process: I will describe my selection process in a brief summary and then I will elaborate on every aspect.

Let us say we are using ‘Manchester City vs. Tottenham'.

1. We need to look at the previous 3 home game scores of the home side – Goal totals need to be calculated specifically.
2. We need to look at the previous 3 away game scores of the away side – Goal totals need to be calculated specifically.
3. The betting odds need to be between 1.60 and 2.20 for the over 2.5 goals market. There are one or two ‘finer' rules that I will explain at the end. Let us put this example into action. See below:

Go to http://www.soccerway.com . On the left hand side, you will see most of the main countries and when you click on there, the leagues will be listed. Otherwise at the top you can click on the National Leagues tab and you will see a drop down box of virtually every nation in the world. This site houses statistics for everything and it really is excellent.

Click on PREMIERSHIP on the left hand side.

Now, I am going to use an example of one of the selections that we had for last weekend, which was Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspurs. The game was an over 2.5 Goal selection and the game ended 1-2. It could have been an even higher scoring game if it wasn't for the red card in the first half which tightened up the game a bit. Now, we are dealing with Man City and Spurs.

As you can see, you are given a few overall records as well as Head 2 Head and the finally the previous 7 or 8 games. Look at the bottom two tabs what you need to do, is click the 'Home' and 'Away' for the respective teams. Seeing Manchester City are the home side, click ‘Home' for them and seeing Tottenham Hotspurs are the ‘Away' side, just click away. You will then be shown the previous home/away results:

You will now see home and away records for both. Seeing that we are now focusing on a PREMIER LEAGUE match, we are only looking at LEAGUE games for the previous league records. What we need to do, is look at the last 3 City Results at home and the last 3 Spurs Results away from home.

They must be league games:

Manchester City: Man City 3-0 Stoke (3 goals in total) Man City 2-3 Liverpool (5 goals in total) Man City 6-0 Portsmouth (6 goals in total) Tottenham: Arsenal 4-4 Spurs (8 goals in total) Stoke 2-1 Spurs (3 goals in total) Portsmouth 2-0 Spurs (2 goals in total).

For the HOME TEAM what we need is the following:

• The home team MUST have had 7 goals or MORE in their last 3 home games.
• 2 or all 3 of the 3 previous games must have ended over 2.5

For the AWAY TEAM what we need is the following:

• The away team MUST have had 7 goals or MORE in their last 3 away games.
• The PREVIOUS game... must have had 2 or more goals in total for the entire game.
• The away team MUST have scored in 2 or 3 of the last 3 games.
• 2 or 3 of the 3 previous games must have ended over 2.5.

The above rules are key to the system and need be followed to the letter.

Now let us see how these apply:

For the HOME TEAM what we need is the following:

• The home team MUST have had 7 goals or MORE in their last 3 home games.
• 2 or all 3 of the 3 previous games must have ended over 2.5

Manchester City: Man City 3-0 Stoke (3 goals in total) Man City 2-3 Liverpool (5 goals in total) Man City 6-0 Portsmouth (6 goals in total).

Rule 1 Was... there must be 7 or more goals in the previous 3 home games. As you can see, the results have been 3-0, 2-3, 6-0, meaning that there is a total of 14... which is quite a lot by any teams standards. Rule 2 Was 2 or all 3 of the 3 games must have ended over 2.5 goals. As you can see, all of them have 3 or more, so all of them apply even though we only needed 2 of them to have been over 2.5.

So far, this is a qualifying bet.

NOW... we need to look at the AWAY side.

For the AWAY TEAM what we need is the following:

• The away team MUST have had 7 goals or MORE in their last 3 away games.
• The PREVIOUS game... must have had 2 or more goals in total for the entire game.
• The away team MUST have scored in 2 or 3 of the last 3 games.
• 2 or 3 of the 3 previous games must have ended over 2.5.

Tottenham: Arsenal 4-4 Spurs (8 goals in total) Stoke 2-1 Spurs (3 goals in total) Portsmouth 2-0 Spurs (2 goals in total).

Rule 1 Was... the away side must have had 3 or more goals in their last 3 away games. As you can see, there were 13 in total, which again is quite large. So this is a qualifier so far.

Rule 2 Was... The previous game must have 2 or more goals in total. As you can see, their previous away game had 8 goals in it so that qualifies.

Rule 3 Was... The away team must have scored in at least 2 of the last 3 games. As you can see, they did manage that. The last game they scored 4 and before that 1, so they have scored in or more of the last 3.

Rule 4 Was.. 2 or 3 of the last 3 must have ended over 2.5. As you can see, 2 of them DID end over 2.5 meaning that this is a qualifying bet.

Final Rule If you bet on a team to be over 2.5 goals and it succeeds twice (meaning that you bet on them in two consecutive games), you MUST skip that team for a game. After that you continue betting on them.

Over And Under Betting

I have always done this and it has worked far better than expected. You will always get what they call the ‘law of averages' and adding in this rule does seem to help our causes against it. Let us say that you bet on a Manchester City game to be over 2.5 goals and their following game, we make the same bet. IF both bets are winning bets, we must then skip Manchester City for one game even if they qualify a third time round.

Example: Bet- Man City match Over 2.5 goals – Bet WON Bet – Man City match Over 2.5 goals – Bet WON - We must now leave them alone for the next game. Many will question this rule, but if you have a look at previous form and work out how often this would have turned a possible winner into a loser, the results are astounding.

Final Word on OVER 2.5

I am a big believer on betting on over 2.5 goals in a game. I am actually against under 2.5, however I will give you my method that I occasionally use. If you do take my recommendation, I would say stick to over 2.5 goal betting. The amount of times that I have bet on under 2.5 and one or two late or injury time goals ruin that bet completely put me off it. The more you bet on games with Overs, the more easily you will be able to identify games like that almost as a 6th sense. It is exactly like I said earlier in the book... It is better to be praying for a 3rd goal in a game, rather than to have your bet lose after 30 odd minutes!

Under 2.5 Goals Betting Method

As I mentioned, I do not like betting on under 2.5 goals, but I will share the method anyway. I also find that this method works 100% better on ITALIAN and FRENCH league football. Avoid Dutch and German league football. These are generally higher scoring. Under 2.5 Goal betting is simple. Basically what we want are score lines of : 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-2 Any of those and we would win our bet. So, onto the method itself. It is not as complex as the Over 2.5, but still generally effective. What we need to do, is have a look at the home side as well as the away sides' last two games. Have a look below:

Selection Method: HOME team rules

• Previous three home games must have ended under 2.5 goals in at least 2 of the 3.
• One or more of the score lines must contain 0 goals for the home or away side. (In any of the 3 games).

AWAY TEAM

• Last three away games must be UNDER 2.5 goals in at least 2 or 3 of the 3.
• The AWAY side must not have scored in at least 1 of the last 3 away games.

PREVIOUS MEETINGS: The previous meeting of this game in the previous season (this exact fixture we are focusing on), must be under 2.5. In other words it must have ended 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 or 0-2. As you can see, the method is definitely easier to implement and it is effective.

Our Example: French Ligue 1: PSG v Lille Have a look at home and away records currently (remember league only): PSG at home in the last 3 games in the league:

Rule 1: 0-1 3-2 0-1 We require 2 or 3 of the games to have ended under 2.5. As you can see, 2 of the 3 did end under 2.5 goals.

Rule 2: Requires that 1 or more of the scores must have a 0 somewhere. As you can see, in their last game they failed to score (0-1) and in the 3rd last game, they failed to score again in another (0-1).

Lille (away from home).

As you can see:

Rule 1: 0-0 2-2 0-2 Again, 2 of the 3 have ended under 2.5 goals.

Rule 2: The away side must not have scored in at least 1 of the last 3 games. As you can see, that this applies to us yet again and in their previous game, they did not score in another scoreless draw.

THE FINAL RULE: Is to check previous results between these sides. We need to check the last fixture only. If you have a look at their previous meetings, which you can find by comparing the two sides on the SoccerWay web site exactly the same way you were shown earlier:

The last result between these two (When PSG were at home), ended 1-1, which is an under 2.5 goal game. Remember, the fixture must be the corresponding on to the previous season. If they didn't face each other for some reason such as relegation, then completely ignore this rule! This is just an extra added check which does help.

Staking

If you wish to use flat stakes only, do the following: It is recommend you start with a minimum bank of £50. If this is the case, I recommend £4 stakes only. If you have a bank of £100, then your stakes should be £8 which is 8% of the bank at all time. The aim is to always stake 8% no matter what the bank is. If you want to be safe, stick to 5%. It is far safer but obviously, profits will be lower. If you need to calculate 8% each time, the calculation is simple:

Divide your entire bank by 100 and then multiply it by 8 so if your bank is 342:

342 / 100 * 8 = £27.36.

Online Betting Over Under

Final Word

I'll say it again – stick to betting on OVER 2.5 goals in a game. Under 2.5 goals is far trickier to select and the result are just never as good. The method outlined in this manual are the ones that I have been putting to use for years.

The over 2.5 goal method, to be fair, has quite a few rules and at the beginning it may take you longer than usual to select your bets, but after a week or two of practice, you will be able to select these games instinctively just by looking at the previous results.

I've been using these methods and have made money. I used to sell this football system but am now distributing it for free for the benefit of all. However, this being free information I cannot warrant that this system will work for you or whether it will work for that matter. For one you need to be disciplined and stick to the system.

Sports Betting Over Under Rules

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Over Under Sports Betting

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